Saturday, June 03, 2006

CEC considers PBI for New Homes

The CEC is proposing a performance-based incentive (PBI) for PV on new homes. It's still in the works; their proposal is here.

Is this a good thing? There are some serious problems with their proposal...but first some background.

Currently, incentives in California are based strictly on installed system size, in $/Watt - a capacity rebate. The California Energy Commission (CEC) uses a method developed by PVUSA to "derate" the manufacturer's nameplate PV output (at Standard Test Conditions or STC -- test conditions convenient for quality control) to estimated field performance. This is referred to as the PVUSA Test Condition or PTC rating. The incentive is presently $2.80 / Watt (PTC) .

Capacity rebates have advantages and disadvantages. The main advantages are that they are straightforward to administer, highly predictable (the decline steadily with time), can be taken by any party in the transaction, and act immediately to defray upfront system cost. The disadvantage, of course, is that the goal of any incentive program is to reward kWh on the grid, not estimated installed capacity (kW). Systems can (and do) receive full incentives even if installed North facing or heavily shaded. Sometimes installers are unscrupulous; sometimes the customer just doesn't care and wants to put on a big PV array. Either way it's counterproductive.

PBIs deal with the problems of capacity rebates directly by paying the incentive based on actual or predicted system performance.

The most extreme example is feed-in tariffs used in Germany and Portugal, where renewable energy projects are simply paid per kWh generated like any other powerplant but at a significantly higher rate. Making sure the financials work in this structure requires fairly sophisticated performance modeling capabilities. These have been pushed back onto the project developers and 3rd party verification companies, typically hired by project financiers. Also the upfront cost is not defrayed, requiring bankers who are willing to lend to this kind of project. It works fine for big projects in Europe (banks seem more enlightened) but it seems onerous for small projects and difficult in the US.

The CEC has a pilot PBI program where performance is measured over three years and based on this performance, the project owner gets quarterly checks. This is a bit better in that it at least accelerates the payment schedule but still has many of the feed-in tariff issues. The CEC has abandoned this approach for the proposed new homes PBI in part because there is a "split incentive" problem in new homes development -- the developer pays the cost upfront, but the homeowner gets the benefit over time and has sole control over some things that affect performance, like planting trees and hosing the PV off periodically.

For new homes, the CEC is developing a modeling program where all the relevant parameters (specifics on the PV modules, system orientation, shading, etc.) is input, and annual kWh are predicted, for every individual system. From this the rebate is calculated and it is payed in a lump sum after an on-site audit. Another aspect is that the CEC wants to eventually implement advanced metering that would allow homeowners to utilize rate structures that favor solar - such as much higher utility rates during peak periods, when the meter is typically running backwards.

As long as their modeling is accurate this sounds great, right? Well, maybe for retrofits. There are some major issues in new home construction.

The problem is that working with builders, ideally you want to structure big deals for large developments -- hundreds of homes. These are constructed over several years. The builders want to lock in the PV price at the time the deal is signed, to control their risk. At that point in the cycle, roof plans and the orientation of each house is still up in the air. This makes the rebate amount for each house impossible to predict in advance. So, in turn it is impossible to lock in price. This is a major disincentive to builders to think big with solar and lock in deals for entire solar developments. Instead they are forced to negociate much smaller contracts at multiple phases in the development cycle. This is bad for everyone.

Installers in this market should be predicting and monitoring energy output from each system. By making that prediction, and making real time data available to homeowners, they are putting their money where their mouth is. So installers do already have an incentive to make sure the systems are installed in the best orientation possible, and to set customer expectations properly if a non-optimal orientation is unavoidable. One huge advantage of doing PV in new developments is the prospect of repeat sales to the builder. In turn the builders want repeat sales from the homeowners (they want to move them up to bigger homes within their developments). So, if homeowners start to complain about underperforming systems this is a bad thing.

Perhaps if installers were simply required to predict and monitor system performance the issues around poorly performing installs would take care of themselves.

In any event, I expect that there will be some push-back on the CEC with this program. It should be simplified and somehow, the rebates need to be made predictable. There are models where preferentially higher capacity rebates are given for systems in certain orientations, for instance.

As for the real-time pricing, the solar geek in me thinks this is extremely cool - but how can you predict the actual cashflow? If you underpredict you lose sales; overpredict and you have unhappy customers.

The bottom line is this. Remember that the people selling PV-equipped homes are not solar experts, and the potential buyers are not solar enthusiasts. There needs to be a straightfoward value proposition. The intent is to create more incentives for homeowners to demand PV systems; to achieve this the economics need to be predictable and salable.

Different rebates for every home based on sophisticated modeling software and complex real-time pricing structures are attractive to the CEC because it improves accuracy and makes better use of the incentive pool. It also justifies their employment of a bunch of PhDs - my main criticism of the CEC is that it strikes me as the ultimate ivory tower. No doubt, there are merits to the approach, but on the ground it seems as if this proposal just muddies the waters.

2 comments:

sex said...

徵信社
情趣用品
情趣用品
情趣精品
情趣用品
情趣用品
情趣用品
情趣
情趣


威而柔
自慰套
自慰套
SM
充氣娃娃
充氣娃娃
潤滑液
飛機杯
按摩棒
跳蛋
性感睡衣

威而柔
自慰套
自慰套
SM
充氣娃娃
充氣娃娃
潤滑液
飛機杯
按摩棒
跳蛋
性感睡衣


情惑用品性易購
情境坊歡愉用品


免費視訊聊天室
aio交友愛情館
愛情公寓
一葉情貼圖片區
情色貼圖
情色文學
色情聊天室
情色小說
情色電影
情色論壇
成人論壇
辣妹視訊
視訊聊天室
情色視訊
免費視訊

免費視訊聊天
視訊交友網
視訊聊天室
視訊美女
視訊交友
視訊交友90739
ut聊天室
聊天室
豆豆聊天室
尋夢園聊天室
聊天室尋夢園
080聊天室
080苗栗人聊天室
女同志聊天室

上班族聊天室
小高聊天室

sexy said...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,按摩棒,跳蛋,充氣娃娃,情境坊歡愉用品,情趣用品,情人節禮物,情惑用品性易購,A片,視訊聊天室,視訊,視訊聊天,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,聊天室,UT聊天室,免費視訊,視訊交友,免費視訊聊天室

免費A片,AV女優,美女視訊,情色交友,免費AV,色情網站,辣妹視訊,美女交友,色情影片,成人影片,成人網站,A片,H漫,18成人,成人圖片,成人漫畫,情色網,日本A片,免費A片下載,性愛

A片,色情,成人,做愛,情色文學,A片下載,色情遊戲,色情影片,色情聊天室,情色電影,免費視訊,免費視訊聊天,免費視訊聊天室,一葉情貼圖片區,情色,情色視訊,免費成人影片,視訊交友,視訊聊天,視訊聊天室,言情小說,愛情小說,AIO,AV片,A漫,av dvd,聊天室,自拍,情色論壇,視訊美女,AV成人網,色情A片,SEX,成人圖片區

情趣用品,A片,免費A片,AV女優,美女視訊,情色交友,色情網站,免費AV,辣妹視訊,美女交友,色情影片,成人網站,H漫,18成人,成人圖片,成人漫畫,成人影片,情色網


情趣用品,A片,免費A片,日本A片,A片下載,線上A片,成人電影,嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,微風成人區,成人文章,成人影城,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,臺灣情色網,色情,情色電影,色情遊戲,嘟嘟情人色網,麗的色遊戲,情色論壇,色情網站,一葉情貼圖片區,做愛,性愛,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,美女交友,做愛影片

av,情趣用品,a片,成人電影,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,成人文章,成人影城,愛情公寓,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,情色電影,aio,av女優,AV,免費A片,日本a片,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,聊天室,美女交友,成人光碟

情趣用品.A片,情色,情色貼圖,色情聊天室,情色視訊,情色文學,色情小說,情色小說,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,情色電影,色情遊戲,色情網站,聊天室,ut聊天室,豆豆聊天室,美女視訊,辣妹視訊,視訊聊天室,視訊交友網,免費視訊聊天,免費A片,日本a片,a片下載,線上a片,av女優,av,成人電影,成人,成人貼圖,成人交友,成人圖片,18成人,成人小說,成人圖片區,成人文章,成人影城,成人網站,自拍,尋夢園聊天室